We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
THE FIRST PHASE OF THE GAZA DEAL IS ONLY ONE PART OF A MUCH BIGGER PLAN
President Trump’s plan for Gaza — which is actually a derivative of his broader strategy to reshape the Middle East, prepared in cooperation with Prime Minister Netanyahu over several years — includes several key components.
Equally important is when each stage will take place (if at all) and what each one depends on.
Here’s how it is structured:
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Stage A – Immediate
1. Release of the hostages in exchange for the release of convicted terrorists, an Israeli withdrawal to the 53% line, and the introduction of humanitarian aid.
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Stage B – Following the Implementation of Stage A
This stage begins immediately afterward and may be prolonged — or even stalled — later on.
Several moves will occur simultaneously and are not dependent on one another:
1. Hamas must lay down its arms, renounce terrorism, and its members will then receive pardons allowing them to leave for another country. They will not take part in managing the territory.
2. A mutually agreed-upon mechanism with Israel will be established to dismantle all terrorist infrastructure, including tunnels, and to destroy all weapons.
3. A “Peace Council” will be formed to oversee civilian administration — headed by President Trump in cooperation with several countries (likely the mediators) — excluding Hamas and other terrorist organizations.
4. Gaza’s gates will open, allowing voluntary migration — “whoever wishes to leave may do so.”
5. A temporary international stabilization force (ISF) will be established — likely composed of Emirati and Indonesian police units, accompanied by Jordanian and Egyptian forces — to secure the borders and prevent arms smuggling.
6. If Hamas refuses to surrender, aid will be directed only to areas controlled by the IDF or the ISF.
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Significance
• Israel retains the right and authority to determine when Gaza has been fully demilitarized and cleared of terrorist activity.
• Migration will begin alongside demilitarization and could, in practice, partially empty Gaza.
• In the area under Israeli control, the United States may begin establishing a free trade zone — likely in northern Gaza or in the completely destroyed Rafah area.
• The IDF will maintain a peripheral security presence — including an expanded perimeter, the Philadelphi Corridor, and control from both the sea and the air over the entire area.
• If Hamas refuses to disarm and destroy its weapons stockpiles, it will be in direct violation of the agreement — allowing Israel to resume fighting and eliminate Hamas and its weapons by force.
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Stage C – After the Full Implementation of Stage B
This stage will begin only once all prior stages and additional conditions are met, including:
1. Gaza becomes a demilitarized zone that poses no threat to its neighbors.
2. The Palestinian Authority — which is not a partner at this stage — must undergo deep internal reforms (which it has refused to carry out for the past 30 years).
Only then may conditions arise for the Palestinians to realize self-determination and statehood.
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Implications
• The Palestinian issue — and demands for statehood or international recognition — which for years represented a “political tsunami,” will effectively be removed from the global political agenda.
• This will be backed by the United States and, more importantly, by the sponsors of the agreement: Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, and other countries expected to join the expanded Abraham Accords.
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Not perfect — but arguably the best proposal put forward so far, given the circumstances of the past two years.
(Shlomo Filber)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
