We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
THE FIRST PHASE OF THE GAZA DEAL IS ONLY ONE PART OF A MUCH BIGGER PLAN
President Trump’s plan for Gaza — which is actually a derivative of his broader strategy to reshape the Middle East, prepared in cooperation with Prime Minister Netanyahu over several years — includes several key components.
Equally important is when each stage will take place (if at all) and what each one depends on.
Here’s how it is structured:
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Stage A – Immediate
1. Release of the hostages in exchange for the release of convicted terrorists, an Israeli withdrawal to the 53% line, and the introduction of humanitarian aid.
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Stage B – Following the Implementation of Stage A
This stage begins immediately afterward and may be prolonged — or even stalled — later on.
Several moves will occur simultaneously and are not dependent on one another:
1. Hamas must lay down its arms, renounce terrorism, and its members will then receive pardons allowing them to leave for another country. They will not take part in managing the territory.
2. A mutually agreed-upon mechanism with Israel will be established to dismantle all terrorist infrastructure, including tunnels, and to destroy all weapons.
3. A “Peace Council” will be formed to oversee civilian administration — headed by President Trump in cooperation with several countries (likely the mediators) — excluding Hamas and other terrorist organizations.
4. Gaza’s gates will open, allowing voluntary migration — “whoever wishes to leave may do so.”
5. A temporary international stabilization force (ISF) will be established — likely composed of Emirati and Indonesian police units, accompanied by Jordanian and Egyptian forces — to secure the borders and prevent arms smuggling.
6. If Hamas refuses to surrender, aid will be directed only to areas controlled by the IDF or the ISF.
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Significance
• Israel retains the right and authority to determine when Gaza has been fully demilitarized and cleared of terrorist activity.
• Migration will begin alongside demilitarization and could, in practice, partially empty Gaza.
• In the area under Israeli control, the United States may begin establishing a free trade zone — likely in northern Gaza or in the completely destroyed Rafah area.
• The IDF will maintain a peripheral security presence — including an expanded perimeter, the Philadelphi Corridor, and control from both the sea and the air over the entire area.
• If Hamas refuses to disarm and destroy its weapons stockpiles, it will be in direct violation of the agreement — allowing Israel to resume fighting and eliminate Hamas and its weapons by force.
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Stage C – After the Full Implementation of Stage B
This stage will begin only once all prior stages and additional conditions are met, including:
1. Gaza becomes a demilitarized zone that poses no threat to its neighbors.
2. The Palestinian Authority — which is not a partner at this stage — must undergo deep internal reforms (which it has refused to carry out for the past 30 years).
Only then may conditions arise for the Palestinians to realize self-determination and statehood.
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Implications
• The Palestinian issue — and demands for statehood or international recognition — which for years represented a “political tsunami,” will effectively be removed from the global political agenda.
• This will be backed by the United States and, more importantly, by the sponsors of the agreement: Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, and other countries expected to join the expanded Abraham Accords.
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Not perfect — but arguably the best proposal put forward so far, given the circumstances of the past two years.
(Shlomo Filber)
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