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🇺🇸🗳⚡️- Election Day in the US tomorrow. What to Expect?
Tomorrow November 4th is election day, mainly for local races and a few statewide contests across the country. Namely the statewide general elections for New Jersey and Virginia, dozens of Mayoral elections including New York City, alongside ballot proposals across the nation most importantly a redistricting referendum in California, and some court elections in Pennsylvania.
The most important races which have garnered the most attention are the New York Mayoral race alongside the 2 Gubernatorial contests.
New York's Mayoral campaign between Democrat Zohran Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, is seen as a major blow to the Democratic establishment and a big test for the electoral viability of the Democratic Socialists of America after Mamdani defeated Cuomo in the primary earlier this year.
Former Governor Cuomo has failed to offer Curtis Sliwa any type of deal to drop out and endorse him despite many New York Republican officials endorsing Cuomo against Mamdani. There are rumors that zionist billionaires such as Bill Ackman have even offered Sliwa bribes or job offers in order to get him to drop out yet he has refused.
Polling has Mamdani comfortably winning the 3 way race yet will potentially be the worst electoral performing Democrat in recent city history. The RCP average currently has him at 46% of the vote with Cuomo following at a distant 32% and Sliwa at 16%. However polling severely underestimated Mamdani in the primary, it is likely he will receive anywhere between 50-58% of the final vote.
New Jersey's election between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has been much closer than anticipated. New Jersey has been a solid blue state in the 21st century however last year President Trump only lost the state by 5 points, a major swing to the right compared to 2020 when Joe Biden won the state by almost 1 million votes. Ciattarelli has run a strong campaign but is against the headwinds of an increasingly unpopular Trump Administration. It is expected that Sherrill will win by around 3-5 points although an upset is not out of the question.
Virginia's statewide elections are expected to be the highlight of the night for the Democratic party as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is, to put it mildly, really stupid compared to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger, a former CIA agent who was elected to congress in the 2018 midterms, is seen as a moderate establishment figure in the Democratic party. She famously criticized AOC and the progressive wing of the party after 2020 blaming them for the House losses that year. She is expected to win comfortably by anywhere between 8-11 points for a much needed boost to Democratic morale at a time when the party is being demolished by the GOP and leftists.
The Attorney Generals race, which entered the spotlight following Democrat Jay Jones texts being revealed showing he fantasized about a GOP politicians White kids dying for "being little fascists" is the only possible victory for the GOP in the state. The current Attorney General Jason Miyares is the only incumbent able to run for re-election this year and has hammered away endlessly at this scandal while attaching himself to the popular Governor Youngkin. However with the government shutdown and the top of the ticket dragging the GOP down its likely Jay Jones will win in the end. The race is a true tossup but its expected Jones will eek out a win by 1-3 points. However Miyares has a very decent chance of winning.
A Jones victory would also open the gates to the Virginia Democrats redrawing the House of Representatives districts in the state which would follow in California and Texas's footsteps in drawing blatant partisan gerrymanders, further complicating the GOP's ability to retain the house in 2026.
California's ballot proposal allowing the state to gerrymander out most California Republicans from the House of Representatives is expected to pass by huge margins.
Pedophile elites wanted to buy an Island, asked if it "comes with children".
Agent replied, the Island "does have a small school"
They don't know camera was rolling
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
