We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.
Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.
That's +$17 billion PER DAY.
Today marks day 35 of the 2025 US government shutdown.
This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.
Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.
The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer.
And, the end appears to be distant at best.
Currently, markets see the US government shutdown lasting until December 1st, per Polymarket.
This would mark a 61 day government shutdown, or 26 days LONGER than the current record.
The economic implications are spreading.
Since October 1st, 3.2 MILLION US airline passengers have been impacted by delays or cancellations.
With the shutdown expected to last through Thanksgiving, ~3.5 million delays/cancellations are expected in Thanksgiving week.
Disruptions may exceed 10 million by December 1st.
Since the shutdown began, federal unemployment claims have skyrocketed.
The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st.
This officially marks the highest number of federal unemployment claims since 2018.
In a report provided to The Kobeissi Letter by the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown will now:
1. Reduce Q4 GDP by up to 200 bps
2. Erase -$39B from economy
3. Delay up to $48B worth of payments
4. Delay $23B in paychecks for Federal workers
The shutdown must end.
🔗 Kobeissi Letter
🇺🇸 Teenagers are now facing charges after doing a ding-dong ditch prank with a twist. They showed up in masks, wearing tactical gear and a rifle, or what looks like a rifle.
Two #Delaware teenagers, aged 16 and 17, faced charges after knocking on doors in New Castle while wearing tactical-style vests and carrying what appeared to be a rifle, police said.
This could’ve ended so badly..
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🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 20, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• US–Iran tensions swing markets — Hormuz tanker fire, Israel warns of renewed strikes, Rubio says talks are hard; oil stayed volatile even as Brent eased below $109
• Anthropic’s massive AI spend shock — WSJ says it may spend >$600B on compute, with huge cloud/Nvidia commitments and >$80B H1 loss
• Trump on Ukraine, Iran and trade — says Ukraine must make a deal, India trade is “pretty close,” and he’s weighing Iran action
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz tanker fire / mine incident — IRGC says a supertanker carrying >2M barrels caught fire after hitting a mine
• Europe gas >€90 — benchmark tops 2022 levels on supply fears; US diesel prices remain elevated
• NATO and EU security push — NATO adds Black Sea assets; EU doubles down on Arctic security and keeping fossil fuels in the ground
📊 Markets & Macro
• US housing weakens further — starts fell 5.2% and pending sales dropped 7.3% to a record low, pressuring ...
📝 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Mario Nawfal on X: Europe's riots are just the beginning. The real economic shock hasn't even arrived yet.
I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about the unrest spreading across France, Italy and Albania.
He thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger.
One statistic really caught my attention.
According to Pilkington, France's inflation-adjusted household food consumption has fallen roughly 6.4% since 2022. He suspects the poorest households have suffered far steeper cuts.
Now add another surge in energy prices.
Pilkington pointed to rice futures rising 70% this year, wheat and sugar climbing 40%, and fertilizer shortages threatening next year's harvest.
His prediction is that the worst food inflation could arrive this winter or next spring.
And there's a political problem sitting right on top of it.
Governments across Europe are already deeply unpopular. People are struggling to afford basic necessities, and another prolonged energy ...
