We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.
Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.
That's +$17 billion PER DAY.
Today marks day 35 of the 2025 US government shutdown.
This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.
Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.
The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer.
And, the end appears to be distant at best.
Currently, markets see the US government shutdown lasting until December 1st, per Polymarket.
This would mark a 61 day government shutdown, or 26 days LONGER than the current record.
The economic implications are spreading.
Since October 1st, 3.2 MILLION US airline passengers have been impacted by delays or cancellations.
With the shutdown expected to last through Thanksgiving, ~3.5 million delays/cancellations are expected in Thanksgiving week.
Disruptions may exceed 10 million by December 1st.
Since the shutdown began, federal unemployment claims have skyrocketed.
The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st.
This officially marks the highest number of federal unemployment claims since 2018.
In a report provided to The Kobeissi Letter by the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown will now:
1. Reduce Q4 GDP by up to 200 bps
2. Erase -$39B from economy
3. Delay up to $48B worth of payments
4. Delay $23B in paychecks for Federal workers
The shutdown must end.
🔗 Kobeissi Letter
Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.
According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.
Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:
"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"
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Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.
People commented:
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"He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."
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"This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."
-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."
The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.
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US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).
These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.
🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.
JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food ...
