๐ The World In 2026 : Multiple Wars Ongoing - Clรฉment Molin
From Yemen ๐พ๐ช to Ukraine ๐บ๐ฆ passing through Sudan ๐ธ๐ฉ, Mali ๐ฒ๐ฑ, Haiti ๐ญ๐น and the DRC ๐จ๐ฉ, war is still ongoing in multiple countries.
Summary :
-Yemen ๐พ๐ช
-Israel/Palestine ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
-Lebanon ๐ฑ๐ง
-Syria ๐ธ๐พ
-Iran ๐ฎ๐ท
-Ukraine/Russia ๐บ๐ฆ๐ท๐บ
-Sudan ๐ธ๐ฉ
-Ethiopia ๐ช๐น
-Somalia ๐ธ๐ด
-DRC/Rwanda ๐จ๐ฉ๐ท๐ผ
-Mozambique ๐ฒ๐ฟ
-Central Africa ๐น๐ฉ๐ณ๐ช๐ณ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฒ๐ธ๐ธ๐จ๐ซ
-Sahel ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ง๐ซ๐ธ๐ณ๐ฌ๐ณ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐น๐ฌ๐ง๐ฏ๐ณ๐ฌ
-Afghanistan/Pakistan ๐ฆ๐ซ๐ต๐ฐ
-Myanmar ๐ฒ๐ฒ
-Thailand/Cambodia ๐น๐ญ๐ฐ๐ญ
-Indonesia/Philippines ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ต๐ญ
-Cartel Wars ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ป๐ช๐จ๐ด๐ช๐จ๐ญ๐น
-Others...
Yemen ๐พ๐ช: South Arabia's Independence, the Saudi-UAE War, Anti-Houthi Bombardments
Israel ๐ฎ๐ฑ - Palestine ๐ต๐ธ : official end of the war but continuous fightings
Lebanon ๐ฑ๐ง
In Lebanon, Israeli operations have led to the destruction of a significant portion of Hezbollah's leadership, which has been greatly weakened, benefiting other Lebanese factions.
Syria ๐ธ๐พ: A Gradual Transition from War to Pacification
Iran ๐ฎ๐ท: When the regime falters
In Iran, 2025 saw the mullahs' regime teetering on the brink, a regime that could fall as early as 2026.
Ukraine ๐บ๐ฆ-Russia ๐ท๐บ: A fourth year of war, 0.9% of Ukraine captured, and a more deadly war.
Sudan ๐ธ๐ฉ: A Forgotten, Massive, and Ultra-Deadly War
Ethiopia ๐ช๐น: The War No One Is Talking About
Somalia ๐ธ๐ด: Secession and Internal War
DRC ๐จ๐ฉ-Rwanda ๐ท๐ผ: The Kivu War Spreads
Mozambique ๐ฒ๐ฟ: Jihadist Surge
Central Africa ๐น๐ฉ๐ณ๐ช๐ณ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฒ๐ธ๐ธ๐จ๐ซ: Jihadist insurgency around Lake Chad and tensions in South Sudan and the Central African Republic
Sahel ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ช๐ง๐ซ๐ธ๐ณ๐ฌ๐ณ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐น๐ฌ๐ง๐ฏ๐ณ๐ฌ: Jihadist Push Towards the Gulf of Guinea
Afghanistan ๐ฆ๐ซ - Pakistan ๐ต๐ฐ: Border clashes and the jihadist threat to Pakistan
Myanmar๐ฒ๐ฒ: An Endless Civil War
Cambodia ๐ฐ๐ญ-Thailand ๐น๐ญ: A New Conflict
Indonesia ๐ฎ๐ฉ and Philippines ๐ต๐ญ, small and forgotten wars
Cartel Wars in Latin America: Venezuela ๐ป๐ช, Colombia ๐จ๐ด, Ecuador ๐ช๐จ, Haiti ๐ญ๐น, Mexico ๐ฒ๐ฝ...
Others :
War is also ongoing in multiple other countries at different scale :
-Anti-gang war in multiple countries of latin America (Brazil, Salvador...)
-Frozen or less active wars in Libya and Irak
-War in Western Sahara between Morrocco and Polisario
-Peace found in Turkiye (PKK), Armenia and Azerbaijan, Tajikistan/Kirgizistan (still sometimes some shots at the border)
-Small scale fightings on China-India and India-Pakistan border, as well as in the south China sea.
Trump's peace: mirage or reality?
Trump believes he stopped about eight wars:
-DRC/Rwanda (the war continued)
-Armenia/Azerbaijan (his action was just a drop in the ocean)
-India/Pakistan (the war would have ended on its own, but good work in negotiation)
-Cambodia/Thailand (the war resumed)
-And the other four are probably the wars between Israel and Arab countries within the framework of the Abraham Accords... In the end, a truly mixed record, and Trump's actions weren't really decisive (except in the case of Israel).
Regarding Trump's promise to end the war in Ukraine in one day, we've been waiting for a year now; he's been tricked every time by Putin. Furthermore, Trump bombed many countries (Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Venezuela...).
In 2026, war is still present, with major interstate conflicts (Ukraine/Russia, DRC/Rwanda, Israel/Iran, etc.), widespread internal wars (Sudan, Yemen, etc.), substate wars linked to terrorism (Sahel, Central Africa, Mozambique, Afghanistan, etc.), rebellions (Indonesia, Philippines, Ethiopia, etc.), and gang wars.
Of course, there would also be much to say about hybrid wars (Russia vs. Europe, for example), cyber wars, and other types of conflict, but that would be too broad a topic. Here, I have attempted to create a typology of the main global conflicts at the start of this new year.
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๐บ๐ธ #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school โlike the Columbine shooters did.โ While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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๐ข โWhy arenโt oil prices higher?โ โHow can the oil market be so complacent?โ
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets โobviousโ from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You donโt realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders donโt panic. Itโs when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
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