From the reports I continue to receive via Iranian channels, one conclusion is unmistakable: the ayatollahs are not impressed by the American military buildup. They read it as posture - not intent. In their assessment, Washington remains deeply reluctant to convert capability into decisive action.

By contrast, what truly shapes their operational preparations is the prospect of an Israeli strike. That scenario is taken far more seriously in Tehran - and it is driving decisions on the ground.

The events of June 2025 cemented this mindset. When the United States appears fully engaged in diplomacy, Iranian officials increasingly interpret it not as de-escalation - but as potential strategic cover.

On the night of June 12, 2025, President Trump posted on X:

“We remain committed to a diplomatic resolution of Iran’s nuclear issue. The entire government has been instructed to negotiate with Iran. They can be a great country, but first they must completely abandon any hope of acquiring nuclear weapons.”

Yet just two and a half hours later, multiple explosions rocked Tehran. Soon after, the Israeli Air Force entered Iranian airspace.

Tehran has not forgotten that sequence. It fundamentally informs how the regime is interpreting the current moment.