The Oil and Water War – and Will American Soldiers Land on Iran’s Shores?

At the beginning of the war, during Operation Epic Fury, President Donald Trump promised that it would be a sharp, focused, and short operation. According to him, the campaign would end within weeks.

But if there is one certainty about wars, it is that they almost never unfold according to plan. Russia believed the war in Ukraine would end within days, and Israel’s Operation Peace for Galilee also began with similar promises.

Since the start of the war, Iran has worked to export the conflict beyond its borders and involve as many countries in the region as possible. Even countries considered relatively friendly, such as the United Arab Emirates, have suffered significant damage.

The Iranian strategy is clear –
to expand the battlefield and create political and economic disruption that will increase pressure on the United States, which Tehran believes struggles to sustain long wars.

One of the main arenas is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 25–30% of the world’s energy supply passes through these straits – about 20 million barrels of oil per day.

A sharp rise in oil prices immediately affects global supply chains and can lead to price increases and even shortages of various goods.

The challenge for the United States is that even if the Iranian navy suffers severe damage, it does not take a large military to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Naval mines, drones, missiles, or small submarines could be enough.

The actual shipping lane used by vessels is extremely narrow – sometimes only about 3 kilometers wide – which makes the area particularly vulnerable.

In such a scenario, the United States might be forced to deploy ground forces at strategic points to ensure the safe passage of ships and the continuation of international trade.

And that is precisely the kind of scenario the Trump administration would find very difficult to sell to the American public.

Iran itself is also paying a price. It exports about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day to China – roughly 90% of its oil exports. Most of this oil passes through Kharg Island, located about 25 kilometers off Iran’s coast.

Some analysts even estimate that the United States might attempt to seize the island in order to control Iranian oil exports – a move that, to a certain extent, has precedent in previous conflicts such as Iraq.

Either way – whether it involves Kharg Island or control over the Strait of Hormuz coastline – the possibility of American soldiers on Iranian soil no longer seems imaginary.

In fact, according to various reports, special forces may already be operating inside Iran.

“Boots on the ground” may already be a reality – the real question is how far this will expand.

At the same time, another front is opening – the water war.

This week we saw reciprocal strikes on desalination facilities. For the Gulf states, this is a critical vulnerability. In countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a large portion of water supply comes from desalination.

Saudi Arabia, for example, does not have a single river.

Striking oil facilities is economically painful –
but striking water infrastructure could create civilian and political chaos.

And as always in wars – you may know how they begin,
but it is very difficult to know how they will end.

(Revolt of the Khaliphs)