We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
The Oil and Water War – and Will American Soldiers Land on Iran’s Shores?
At the beginning of the war, during Operation Epic Fury, President Donald Trump promised that it would be a sharp, focused, and short operation. According to him, the campaign would end within weeks.
But if there is one certainty about wars, it is that they almost never unfold according to plan. Russia believed the war in Ukraine would end within days, and Israel’s Operation Peace for Galilee also began with similar promises.
Since the start of the war, Iran has worked to export the conflict beyond its borders and involve as many countries in the region as possible. Even countries considered relatively friendly, such as the United Arab Emirates, have suffered significant damage.
The Iranian strategy is clear –
to expand the battlefield and create political and economic disruption that will increase pressure on the United States, which Tehran believes struggles to sustain long wars.
One of the main arenas is, of course, the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 25–30% of the world’s energy supply passes through these straits – about 20 million barrels of oil per day.
A sharp rise in oil prices immediately affects global supply chains and can lead to price increases and even shortages of various goods.
The challenge for the United States is that even if the Iranian navy suffers severe damage, it does not take a large military to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Naval mines, drones, missiles, or small submarines could be enough.
The actual shipping lane used by vessels is extremely narrow – sometimes only about 3 kilometers wide – which makes the area particularly vulnerable.
In such a scenario, the United States might be forced to deploy ground forces at strategic points to ensure the safe passage of ships and the continuation of international trade.
And that is precisely the kind of scenario the Trump administration would find very difficult to sell to the American public.
Iran itself is also paying a price. It exports about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day to China – roughly 90% of its oil exports. Most of this oil passes through Kharg Island, located about 25 kilometers off Iran’s coast.
Some analysts even estimate that the United States might attempt to seize the island in order to control Iranian oil exports – a move that, to a certain extent, has precedent in previous conflicts such as Iraq.
Either way – whether it involves Kharg Island or control over the Strait of Hormuz coastline – the possibility of American soldiers on Iranian soil no longer seems imaginary.
In fact, according to various reports, special forces may already be operating inside Iran.
“Boots on the ground” may already be a reality – the real question is how far this will expand.
At the same time, another front is opening – the water war.
This week we saw reciprocal strikes on desalination facilities. For the Gulf states, this is a critical vulnerability. In countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a large portion of water supply comes from desalination.
Saudi Arabia, for example, does not have a single river.
Striking oil facilities is economically painful –
but striking water infrastructure could create civilian and political chaos.
And as always in wars – you may know how they begin,
but it is very difficult to know how they will end.
(Revolt of the Khaliphs)
Gavin Newsom caught in a massive federal money laundering scam
Newsom increased ambulance costs 300%, then requested reimbursements from the federal government, but it was fake
He’d then pay a different company a fraction of the cost and pocket the rest. Stealing billions
“One of the largest and most convoluted schemes in modern history has been discovered during a review of California's medical financial records”
“Investigators found that under Gavin Newsom's leadership, the Golden State has essentially been funneling taxpayer money from all across America to prop up California's own finances.
Genesis Plan started in 2022 and it revolves around the complex concept of intergovernmental transfers, which in simple terms is when a local hospital or county makes a transfer to the state Medicaid agency for payments of medical services such as ambulance rides
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After the transfers are made, the state can then request a matching amount of money from the federal government
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But Gavin ...
Leaked phone call from January 4, 2025 (3 days before the devastating Palisades Fire)
The call is between Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and John Alle, a property manager and whistleblower in the Pacific Palisades, Westlake and MacArthur Park areas
John Alle contacted Karen Bass to warn her about extreme fire risks due to weather conditions like high winds and dry brush
Karen Bass tells him to “read between the lines,” “hold tight,” and that “you will understand soon.”
She knew something was coming, almost like a planned fire (many believe the land grab)
This call is interpreted as her knowing serious fire danger was imminent but not wanting to discuss what was about to happen openly….
Very cryptic
🔗 Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes)
@CherokeeOwl 🦉
@BrettColdwell
🇮🇱⚔️🇱🇧🇵🇸 Multi-front aggression on Gaza and Lebanon has left Israeli reserve forces on the brink of collapse warns army chief
The Israeli military establishment issued a dire warning to the Knesset on Monday, cautioning that its overstretched reserve forces are teetering on the edge of a total systemic breakdown. As first reported by i24 News, during a classified session of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told lawmakers that the army's ability to sustain its multi-front aggression—stretching from Gaza to the northern borders with Lebanon—is rapidly eroding.
Zamir urged immediate legislative action to extend mandatory service to 36 months and expand conscription to include the ultra-Orthodox community, describing the current strain on reservists as an "unreasonable burden" that cannot be maintained.
The military's manpower crisis comes as Tel Aviv prepares for a potential expansion of its ground invasion into south Lebanon, ...
🇺🇸🚱⚠️ The Worst Spring Drought on Record Is Putting U.S. Crops at Risk
The United States experienced its worst spring drought on record last month, with more than 60% of land in the lower 48 states experiencing moderate drought or worse.
The drought has sparked alarm among farmers and environmentalists across the country, who warn that food supplies may be impacted and wildfires may blight areas where they are not usually seen.
The dry conditions are concentrated in the southeast, where moderate to exceptional drought covered 99.81% of the region at its peak in April, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe to exceptional drought covered more than 80% of the region, the highest level in April since the monitor began collecting data in 2000.
The drought has been building for some time. Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina experienced record dry conditions between September 2025 and March 2026, with records dating back to 1895.
While heavy rainfall in the South last...
The US bond market crisis is intensifying.
While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.
The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.
Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve.
At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year.
The question then becomes:
How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis?
And, who folds first?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
