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War Time

🇺🇸 President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies

Once a deficit hawk — he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years — Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.

The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.

The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document — with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.

Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and deficit levels rely on overly rosy economic numbers that predate the war in Iran, and whether they depend on spending cuts that have no realistic path to overcoming a Senate Democratic filibuster. Any increased doubts about the sustainability of US public debt could cause long-term Treasury yields to rise.

Projections released by the White House last September estimated that Trump’s tax and spending policies would halve the projected deficit over the next 10 years. But that number relied on tariff revenues that the Supreme Court decision upended, as well as lower interest rates and higher growth than many economists now expect.

Trump has said he will be seeking to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion from less than $1 trillion in the current fiscal year. The details of how this massive increase will be spent are yet unknown.

Last year’s budget relied on a one-time boost to defense spending, using a legislative process known as reconciliation to pass $113 billion in new spending along party lines — on top of a bipartisan baseline of $848 billion.

Now the administration is looking for a much larger baseline increase in the defense budget. Trump hasn’t made clear whether the $1.5 trillion figure is just for the Pentagon operating budget, or also includes other defense line-items like military construction and nuclear weapon spending by the Energy Department. Nor has the administration detailed whether the increased spending would continue in 2028 and beyond.

There are also unresolved issues for the current fiscal year. The Pentagon has sent a $200 billion request for immediate spending to the White House to pay for the war against Iran. The White House budget office is evaluating that proposal, which Trump has not yet proposed to Congress.

🔗 https://archive.ph/Mf9oC

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🇮🇷🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?

Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.

They were especially unhappy that Trump’s narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.

Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.

Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.

All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagon’s intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of ...

Munitions

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.

They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.

The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.

CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.

Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.

📝 Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower

But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, ...

Who Runs Iran?

🇺🇸💬🇮🇷❌🇮🇷 — 🧐 ISW on 𝕏:

"MORE: Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on April 18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iran’s objectives. Ghalibaf also reportedly criticized hardline officials, including Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) member Saeed Jalili and hardline parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti, for their opposition to negotiations during a meeting with advisers, but his criticisms were likely implicitly directed at Vahidi.

US officials separately told Axios on April 20 that the US negotiating delegation thought it was “negotiating with the right people“ in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 but that the IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation upon their return to Tehran that they ”don’t speak for” the IRGC. Senior regime officials, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly called the Iranian ...

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