We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for pension funds with decade long horizons, but it was repackaged and sold to wealthy individuals who believed they could exit whenever things got uncomfortable.
Blue Owl is not alone, BlackRock just capped withdrawals on its $26 billion lending fund, Morgan Stanley received requests for nearly 11% of one fund and could only return 5%, and both Ares and Apollo restricted their funds within days of each other.
The Federal Reserve confirmed three days ago that it is actively monitoring private credit for contagion risks that could spread into the broader banking system, the kind of statement regulators only make when they are genuinely alarmed.
About 40% of the companies that borrowed through these funds currently spend more than they earn, up from 25% just four years ago when rates were near zero.
Managers advertise a default rate below 2% but independent researchers who account for restructured loans and deferred payments put the real number closer to 5% meaning the losses already exist inside these portfolios and simply haven't been officially admitted yet.
Private credit has quietly grown into a $1.8 to $3 trillion industry over the past decade, largely outside the reach of traditional banking regulation, and its first true stress test is happening right now with retail investor money on the line.
The gates are closing one by one, and the only question anyone on Wall Street is asking this morning is whether the funds run out of liquidity before the investors waiting outside run out of patience.
🔗 Stock Market NewsHe
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
