We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for pension funds with decade long horizons, but it was repackaged and sold to wealthy individuals who believed they could exit whenever things got uncomfortable.
Blue Owl is not alone, BlackRock just capped withdrawals on its $26 billion lending fund, Morgan Stanley received requests for nearly 11% of one fund and could only return 5%, and both Ares and Apollo restricted their funds within days of each other.
The Federal Reserve confirmed three days ago that it is actively monitoring private credit for contagion risks that could spread into the broader banking system, the kind of statement regulators only make when they are genuinely alarmed.
About 40% of the companies that borrowed through these funds currently spend more than they earn, up from 25% just four years ago when rates were near zero.
Managers advertise a default rate below 2% but independent researchers who account for restructured loans and deferred payments put the real number closer to 5% meaning the losses already exist inside these portfolios and simply haven't been officially admitted yet.
Private credit has quietly grown into a $1.8 to $3 trillion industry over the past decade, largely outside the reach of traditional banking regulation, and its first true stress test is happening right now with retail investor money on the line.
The gates are closing one by one, and the only question anyone on Wall Street is asking this morning is whether the funds run out of liquidity before the investors waiting outside run out of patience.
🔗 Stock Market NewsHe
Gavin Newsom caught in a massive federal money laundering scam
Newsom increased ambulance costs 300%, then requested reimbursements from the federal government, but it was fake
He’d then pay a different company a fraction of the cost and pocket the rest. Stealing billions
“One of the largest and most convoluted schemes in modern history has been discovered during a review of California's medical financial records”
“Investigators found that under Gavin Newsom's leadership, the Golden State has essentially been funneling taxpayer money from all across America to prop up California's own finances.
Genesis Plan started in 2022 and it revolves around the complex concept of intergovernmental transfers, which in simple terms is when a local hospital or county makes a transfer to the state Medicaid agency for payments of medical services such as ambulance rides
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After the transfers are made, the state can then request a matching amount of money from the federal government
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But Gavin ...
Leaked phone call from January 4, 2025 (3 days before the devastating Palisades Fire)
The call is between Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and John Alle, a property manager and whistleblower in the Pacific Palisades, Westlake and MacArthur Park areas
John Alle contacted Karen Bass to warn her about extreme fire risks due to weather conditions like high winds and dry brush
Karen Bass tells him to “read between the lines,” “hold tight,” and that “you will understand soon.”
She knew something was coming, almost like a planned fire (many believe the land grab)
This call is interpreted as her knowing serious fire danger was imminent but not wanting to discuss what was about to happen openly….
Very cryptic
🔗 Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes)
@CherokeeOwl 🦉
@BrettColdwell
🇮🇱⚔️🇱🇧🇵🇸 Multi-front aggression on Gaza and Lebanon has left Israeli reserve forces on the brink of collapse warns army chief
The Israeli military establishment issued a dire warning to the Knesset on Monday, cautioning that its overstretched reserve forces are teetering on the edge of a total systemic breakdown. As first reported by i24 News, during a classified session of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told lawmakers that the army's ability to sustain its multi-front aggression—stretching from Gaza to the northern borders with Lebanon—is rapidly eroding.
Zamir urged immediate legislative action to extend mandatory service to 36 months and expand conscription to include the ultra-Orthodox community, describing the current strain on reservists as an "unreasonable burden" that cannot be maintained.
The military's manpower crisis comes as Tel Aviv prepares for a potential expansion of its ground invasion into south Lebanon, ...
🇺🇸🚱⚠️ The Worst Spring Drought on Record Is Putting U.S. Crops at Risk
The United States experienced its worst spring drought on record last month, with more than 60% of land in the lower 48 states experiencing moderate drought or worse.
The drought has sparked alarm among farmers and environmentalists across the country, who warn that food supplies may be impacted and wildfires may blight areas where they are not usually seen.
The dry conditions are concentrated in the southeast, where moderate to exceptional drought covered 99.81% of the region at its peak in April, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe to exceptional drought covered more than 80% of the region, the highest level in April since the monitor began collecting data in 2000.
The drought has been building for some time. Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina experienced record dry conditions between September 2025 and March 2026, with records dating back to 1895.
While heavy rainfall in the South last...
The US bond market crisis is intensifying.
While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.
The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.
Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve.
At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year.
The question then becomes:
How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis?
And, who folds first?
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
