We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for pension funds with decade long horizons, but it was repackaged and sold to wealthy individuals who believed they could exit whenever things got uncomfortable.
Blue Owl is not alone, BlackRock just capped withdrawals on its $26 billion lending fund, Morgan Stanley received requests for nearly 11% of one fund and could only return 5%, and both Ares and Apollo restricted their funds within days of each other.
The Federal Reserve confirmed three days ago that it is actively monitoring private credit for contagion risks that could spread into the broader banking system, the kind of statement regulators only make when they are genuinely alarmed.
About 40% of the companies that borrowed through these funds currently spend more than they earn, up from 25% just four years ago when rates were near zero.
Managers advertise a default rate below 2% but independent researchers who account for restructured loans and deferred payments put the real number closer to 5% meaning the losses already exist inside these portfolios and simply haven't been officially admitted yet.
Private credit has quietly grown into a $1.8 to $3 trillion industry over the past decade, largely outside the reach of traditional banking regulation, and its first true stress test is happening right now with retail investor money on the line.
The gates are closing one by one, and the only question anyone on Wall Street is asking this morning is whether the funds run out of liquidity before the investors waiting outside run out of patience.
🔗 Stock Market NewsHe
Seven Murders.
Ten Suicides.
Five Traffic Accidents.
Eight Natural Deaths.
Marc Dutroux was the European Jeffrey Epstein sourcing children for paedo elites to rape and murder and they covered it up!
🇮🇷🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?
Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.
They were especially unhappy that Trump’s narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.
Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.
Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.
All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagon’s intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of ...
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.
They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.
The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.
CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.
Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.
📝 Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower
But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, ...
🇺🇸💬🇮🇷❌🇮🇷 — 🧐 ISW on 𝕏:
"MORE: Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on April 18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iran’s objectives. Ghalibaf also reportedly criticized hardline officials, including Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) member Saeed Jalili and hardline parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti, for their opposition to negotiations during a meeting with advisers, but his criticisms were likely implicitly directed at Vahidi.
US officials separately told Axios on April 20 that the US negotiating delegation thought it was “negotiating with the right people“ in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 but that the IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation upon their return to Tehran that they ”don’t speak for” the IRGC. Senior regime officials, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly called the Iranian ...
