🇮🇷🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?

Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.

They were especially unhappy that Trump’s narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.

Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.

Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.

All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagon’s intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of the U.S. government.

While Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Trump claim that Iranian forces have been annihilated, the intelligence report indicates that the country still retains significant military capabilities. On top of that, CNN also published on April 21 that the stockpiles of interceptors and Tomahawks are a major concern.

In any conflict, reality eventually imposes itself. This isn’t like an election campaign, where there’s a fixed deadline and you can plan everything in advance.

Right now, after Iran’s latest move, Donald Trump has a few cards left in his hand.

His strongest position is the naval blockade, which prevents Iran from exporting oil and cuts off its main source of revenue. The problem is that Iran can still survive for a few weeks under these conditions. But what about the global economy? That’s the point that makes this tactic questionable.

Another card would be to resume much harsher strikes, targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure and bringing the entire country to a halt.

This approach could cause severe environmental disasters in the region and would likely trigger Iranian retaliation against the same infrastructure in Gulf countries, dramatically worsening the energy crisis and potentially creating water shortages and data blackouts, since Iran has already announced it would cut submarine cables in such a scenario.

Four more cards remain in his hand: occupying ports, a new attempt to involve Gulf countries, opening Hormuz using destroyers, and, finally, tactical nuclear missiles.

Any of these options, seizing ports, freeing the strait with destroyers, or pulling in the Gulf countries, must be carefully evaluated because they all risk making the problem bigger instead of solving it.

🔗 Patricia Marins