We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇷🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?
Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.
They were especially unhappy that Trump’s narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.
Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.
Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.
All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagon’s intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of the U.S. government.
While Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Trump claim that Iranian forces have been annihilated, the intelligence report indicates that the country still retains significant military capabilities. On top of that, CNN also published on April 21 that the stockpiles of interceptors and Tomahawks are a major concern.
In any conflict, reality eventually imposes itself. This isn’t like an election campaign, where there’s a fixed deadline and you can plan everything in advance.
Right now, after Iran’s latest move, Donald Trump has a few cards left in his hand.
His strongest position is the naval blockade, which prevents Iran from exporting oil and cuts off its main source of revenue. The problem is that Iran can still survive for a few weeks under these conditions. But what about the global economy? That’s the point that makes this tactic questionable.
Another card would be to resume much harsher strikes, targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure and bringing the entire country to a halt.
This approach could cause severe environmental disasters in the region and would likely trigger Iranian retaliation against the same infrastructure in Gulf countries, dramatically worsening the energy crisis and potentially creating water shortages and data blackouts, since Iran has already announced it would cut submarine cables in such a scenario.
Four more cards remain in his hand: occupying ports, a new attempt to involve Gulf countries, opening Hormuz using destroyers, and, finally, tactical nuclear missiles.
Any of these options, seizing ports, freeing the strait with destroyers, or pulling in the Gulf countries, must be carefully evaluated because they all risk making the problem bigger instead of solving it.
🔗 Patricia Marins
Seven Murders.
Ten Suicides.
Five Traffic Accidents.
Eight Natural Deaths.
Marc Dutroux was the European Jeffrey Epstein sourcing children for paedo elites to rape and murder and they covered it up!
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.
They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.
The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.
CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.
Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.
📝 Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower
But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, ...
🇺🇸💬🇮🇷❌🇮🇷 — 🧐 ISW on 𝕏:
"MORE: Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on April 18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iran’s objectives. Ghalibaf also reportedly criticized hardline officials, including Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) member Saeed Jalili and hardline parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti, for their opposition to negotiations during a meeting with advisers, but his criticisms were likely implicitly directed at Vahidi.
US officials separately told Axios on April 20 that the US negotiating delegation thought it was “negotiating with the right people“ in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 but that the IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation upon their return to Tehran that they ”don’t speak for” the IRGC. Senior regime officials, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly called the Iranian ...
🚫🌾 The coming global food crisis — Financial Times
Hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war on Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops
Few 20th-century transformations did more to remake the world than the “Green Revolution”. From the 1950s onwards, new high-yielding crop varieties, synthetic fertilisers, chemical pesticides and large-scale irrigation drove a sharp increase in the output of staple crops such as wheat and rice. In its more celebratory accounts, this transformation pushed back famine and helped support rapid population growth across much of Asia and Latin America. India, one of the key centres of the Green Revolution, more than doubled wheat production between the mid-1960s and early 1970s.
As numerous critics have noted, the Green Revolution also came with enormous ecological and social costs. But one of its less discussed consequences was the link it established ...
