We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US time to navigate the Iranian conflict without the oil market blowing up. It was also the same reason why at the beginning of the conflict, I wrote a piece titled, “Why Aren’t Oil Prices At $100?”
But fast forwarding 6-weeks later, the facts have changed. The conflict is ongoing, and that onshore cushion you are seeing in storage is nothing but a mirage. Even if the conflict ends this very second and everything returns to normal, that oil inventory is gone.
Vanished. No more.
In essence, the oil market really should be pricing forward balances as if we are already near 7.6 billion bbls, but it’s not, and this creates the biggest mispricing trade since the COVID lockdown (short oil) trade.
Oil traders, the physical guys, lack both the means and capabilities to drive financial prices higher. Financial markets are exponentially larger than the physical side, but there’s one quirk: expiry.
As the futures market approaches expiry, people who continue to hold the contracts are obligated to deliver the goods (literally). This mechanism will be tested first at the May WTI expiry, where the physical market is already quoted at a +$20 premium to financial prices. It will be tested again in the Brent expiry at the end of the month.
What will happen is that as we get closer to the expiry, market participants who are short have to cover because there’s no way in hell they can deliver the goods physically.
We are literally going to run out of available commercial crude storage. This will force the prompt month higher, which will suck in financial flows into the June contracts. This inflection point will shock market participants awake.
This is one of the main reasons why I’ve remained so calm over the past few weeks. The math is what it is. The Trump administration can jawbone oil prices all they want. Axios can publish whatever headlines it wants, but the reality will be swift and vicious. If you do not have the means to deliver the goods, you have to cover.
đź”— HFI Research
🇲🇽- Mexican Cartel Drone Operator seen stalking a Mexican Marine Convoy in Mazatlán.
This isn’t much of a surprise, Cartel members have reportedly been joining the Ukrainian Foreign Legions en masse to hone drone operation and close quarters combat skills.
Since many of them are starting to return home, and now training other members of their cartels, i wouldn’t be shocked to see a new level of militarization in these organizations.
📝 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Mario Nawfal on X: Europe's riots are just the beginning. The real economic shock hasn't even arrived yet.
I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about the unrest spreading across France, Italy and Albania.
He thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger.
One statistic really caught my attention.
According to Pilkington, France's inflation-adjusted household food consumption has fallen roughly 6.4% since 2022. He suspects the poorest households have suffered far steeper cuts.
Now add another surge in energy prices.
Pilkington pointed to rice futures rising 70% this year, wheat and sugar climbing 40%, and fertilizer shortages threatening next year's harvest.
His prediction is that the worst food inflation could arrive this winter or next spring.
And there's a political problem sitting right on top of it.
Governments across Europe are already deeply unpopular. People are struggling to afford basic necessities, and another prolonged energy ...
🇨🇦🇨🇦🗳 Alberta votes on leaving Canada; separatist movement likely to outlast expected defeat
Alberta holds a nonbinding referendum on Monday on whether the western province should secede from Canada, a debate many believe will ​not be settled by what is widely expected to be a defeat for the separatist cause.
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of ‌Alberta voters oppose splitting from Canada. Economic grievances have fueled the independence campaign in the province, which is home to 5 million people and slightly smaller than Texas despite having one-sixth the population.
The Alberta separatist movement adds to the pressures on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has made defending Canada's sovereignty a central mission as he confronts US tariffs and ​President Donald Trump's repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state.
Many Alberta separatists believe the Liberal Party-led federal government in Ottawa has constrained the Conservative-governed ...
My jaw literally dropped listening to this
There is a Muslim pilot who works for United Airlines that regularly makes pro-terrorist organizations posts on his social media
The Muslims name is Ibrahim Mossallam. He works on the Board of CAIR New York, which is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood
He made an October 7, 2023 Facebook post calling the Hamas attacks “resistance by a brave people.” United suspended him with pay while investigating but the Pilots Union got him his job back and he went back to flying planes in America
Since then the pilot has been temporarily resuspended for flying because of his extreme religious beliefs and posts but he is 100% still employed. He is still getting paid on suspension
I looked into this guy and he is VERY involved in Muslim organizations
- CAIR-NY lists him as Board Vice-President and describes him as a professional international airline pilot who is “very active in shaping the Muslim youth community.”
- He has also been listed as a board ...
