🛢 Oil Markets Are Dangerously Complacent About What’s Coming — Commodities Veteran Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research and now senior adviser at Carlyle, warns financial markets are catastrophically underestimating the oil crisis building beneath the Iran war.
📌 “You’re borrowing oil from the future”:
“There’s a big difference between a deficit and a shortage. We’re in a deficit. Demand is above supply. We are drawing inventories.”
U.S. distillate inventories have already fallen to 102 days of supply from 120 just weeks ago. Gulf Coast tank bottoms sit around 200–220 million barrels. “If you get below 220, you’re already in a pretty tricky situation. We’re not that far away.”
📌 “You’re going to have to feel it”:
Currie says the inflection point where deficit becomes outright shortage could arrive within days: “If you’re at 102, you’re going to feel it like any day.”
📌 The Strait of Hormuz may not be forceable open:
“All you need is a guy with a rocket launcher and some drones. There’s no way you’re gonna force that thing open.”
He pointed to the Red Sea, where after two years of bombing Yemen, shipping traffic remains down roughly 75%.
📌 “The whole Bretton Woods architecture is done”:
Currie argues the closure of Hormuz shatters the core bargain underpinning dollar dominance: U.S. protection of global trade routes in exchange for the world using the dollar system. “Who’s ever going to trust them again?”
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🇺🇸🇪🇺🇯🇵🇨🇦🇬🇧 G7 finance ministers to meet amid warning of economic consequences of prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure
Ahead of a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven developed economies in Paris on Monday, a senior European official says the situation in the Middle East has highlighted how exposed the interconnected global economy is to external shocks.
“Opening the Strait of Hormuz and bringing the conflict to a lasting end are of the utmost importance in mitigating the impact on the economy,” Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said in a statement.
The Eurogroup is a body that brings together ministers from the euro area and is being represented at the G7 meeting by Pierrakakis, who is also the Greek finance minister. The G7′s core members are the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.
“The European economy has proven resilient in the face of this energy crisis. Yet, the global economy will feel the pressure – even if ...
🛢 Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a ‘non-linear’ price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Dire warnings about oil supplies are coming from everywhere lately as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed while President Donald Trump’s trip to China failed to produce a breakthrough to reopen the critical waterway.
While investors have been trading on hopes that the Iran ceasefire will remain intact, there is little sign that the oil trade will return to normal soon, forcing them to reckon with the reality of worsening shortages and an imminent tipping point ahead.
JPMorgan predicted that commercial oil inventories in the developed world could “approach operational stress levels” by early June. Saudi Aramco said global inventories of gasoline and jet fuel could reach “critically low levels” ahead of the summer.
The International Energy Agency warned the world is drawing down oil inventories at a record pace, with 164 million barrels ...