We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🛢 Oil Markets Are Dangerously Complacent About What’s Coming — Commodities Veteran Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research and now senior adviser at Carlyle, warns financial markets are catastrophically underestimating the oil crisis building beneath the Iran war.
📌 “You’re borrowing oil from the future”:
“There’s a big difference between a deficit and a shortage. We’re in a deficit. Demand is above supply. We are drawing inventories.”
U.S. distillate inventories have already fallen to 102 days of supply from 120 just weeks ago. Gulf Coast tank bottoms sit around 200–220 million barrels. “If you get below 220, you’re already in a pretty tricky situation. We’re not that far away.”
📌 “You’re going to have to feel it”:
Currie says the inflection point where deficit becomes outright shortage could arrive within days: “If you’re at 102, you’re going to feel it like any day.”
đź“Ś The Strait of Hormuz may not be forceable open:
“All you need is a guy with a rocket launcher and some drones. There’s no way you’re gonna force that thing open.”
He pointed to the Red Sea, where after two years of bombing Yemen, shipping traffic remains down roughly 75%.
📌 “The whole Bretton Woods architecture is done”:
Currie argues the closure of Hormuz shatters the core bargain underpinning dollar dominance: U.S. protection of global trade routes in exchange for the world using the dollar system. “Who’s ever going to trust them again?”
đź”— DropSite
Police in Winona Minnesota are stunned after every single one of their Flock cameras were suddenly removed in a single night.
According to the police department, all 8 of the town's cameras were cut down and hauled away.
Police are asking for the public's help to identify the individual, but the public has been responding with comments such as:
"The Flock cameras tore themselves down"
"Whoever did it, was fishing with me"
"Whoever it was, was at Bible study with me"
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Nearly 20,000 people are publicly vouching for a man accused of cutting down Flock cameras in a small West Virginia town.
People commented:
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"He was saving my neighbor's dog from a fire all day, couldn't be him."
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"This man is innocent. I saw him serving at a soup kitchen."
-"Couldn't be him. He was helping me replace the roof on a homeless shelter."
The man, Wesley Jackson, has pleaded Not Guilty.
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US diesel crack surpasses $100 a barrel for the first time on supply disruptions
... and the supply of refined fuels is already nearly exhausted. A hard landing is visible ahead, for farmers, for trucking, and ... well, for everything that requires food (people) and energy (the entire economy).
These are very likely the final days of relative normalcy during which to prepare. Get ready.
🌾 🌍 🚜 JPMorgan warns a massive global food supply crisis could begin next year as fertilizer shortages tighten agricultural supply.
JPMorgan is the latest institutional research desk to warn that the next global food crisis may already be taking shape, driven by what its analysts describe as the "Five Ws": War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste.
In a new report titled Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm, a team led by London-based senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of a potentially historic El Niño could weaken crop yields, constrain agricultural production, and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027.
"Successive shocks since COVID have compounded, eroding food production capacity and keeping food price pressures elevated into 2027," Szentivanyi said, warning that "this is not a short-lived shock; it has reduced the likelihood of near-term disinflation, and the food ...
