🛢 Oil Markets Are Dangerously Complacent About What’s Coming — Commodities Veteran Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research and now senior adviser at Carlyle, warns financial markets are catastrophically underestimating the oil crisis building beneath the Iran war.
📌 “You’re borrowing oil from the future”:
“There’s a big difference between a deficit and a shortage. We’re in a deficit. Demand is above supply. We are drawing inventories.”
U.S. distillate inventories have already fallen to 102 days of supply from 120 just weeks ago. Gulf Coast tank bottoms sit around 200–220 million barrels. “If you get below 220, you’re already in a pretty tricky situation. We’re not that far away.”
📌 “You’re going to have to feel it”:
Currie says the inflection point where deficit becomes outright shortage could arrive within days: “If you’re at 102, you’re going to feel it like any day.”
📌 The Strait of Hormuz may not be forceable open:
“All you need is a guy with a rocket launcher and some drones. There’s no way you’re gonna force that thing open.”
He pointed to the Red Sea, where after two years of bombing Yemen, shipping traffic remains down roughly 75%.
📌 “The whole Bretton Woods architecture is done”:
Currie argues the closure of Hormuz shatters the core bargain underpinning dollar dominance: U.S. protection of global trade routes in exchange for the world using the dollar system. “Who’s ever going to trust them again?”
🔗 DropSite
THE COST OF THE AMERICAN DREAM HAS EXPLODED.
Owning a home.
Buying groceries.
Driving to work.
Paying insurance.
Even your morning coffee.
Nearly every major household expense costs dramatically more than it did just a few years ago.
Over the last 7 years:
• Coffee: +127%
• Home prices: +60%
• Auto insurance: +51%
• Gasoline: +49%
• Electricity: +44%
• Shelter: +35%
• Groceries: +33%
And that's before paying for healthcare, transportation, or eating out.
This is why so many families feel like they're falling behind even when they get a raise.
The biggest financial problem for millions of Americans is that everything is going up at the same time, while the government keeps showing a 2% inflation target.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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