We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 - Are U.S. ground troops being prepared for operations against #Iran? – An Iranian assessment
🔹 Recent flight tracking data shows a number of U.S. passenger and cargo aircraft moving from bases such as Eglin Air Force Base, Fort Bliss, and Fort Liberty toward Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. These bases are associated with special forces, airborne units, and combat aviation, which has drawn attention in Iranian analytical circles.
🔹 In parallel, earlier reports about the cancellation of a training exercise by the 82nd Airborne Division are interpreted as a possible indicator that certain rapid deployment units may have been placed on standby for operations in the region.
🔹 At the same time, the movement of amphibious forces – particularly the Boxer and Tripoli groups – has reinforced speculation that a sizable number of U.S. Marines could now be positioned in or near the battlefield, although the exact composition of these forces remains unclear.
🔹 Within this context, Iranian assessments do not dismiss the possibility of ground operations. However, some of them push back against the widely discussed scenario of a U.S. move on Kharg Island.
🔹 In this view, a ground operation targeting Kharg would be both highly complex and of limited strategic value, especially given the island’s proximity to the Iranian mainland and the fact that it can be targeted through airpower without the need for ground forces.
🔹 Instead, the assessment goes on to argue that, if a ground component is being prepared, it would most likely be directed at Iran’s southern mainland, specifically military bases along the Persian Gulf coast.
🔹 The logic here is that the current air campaign has already focused heavily on degrading Iran’s maritime and coastal capabilities, particularly those linked to operations in the Strait of Hormuz. However, from this perspective, airstrikes alone may not be sufficient to fully neutralize these capabilities.
🔹 As a result, any limited ground or special operations would likely be seen as a continuation of this same effort, i.e., targeting, degrading, or potentially seizing key coastal nodes that support Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic.
🔹 In this reading, Kharg Island is therefore not the main objective, but rather a secondary or even distracting point in public discussions, while the real focus lies on the southern shores of Iran.
🔹 At the same time, the buildup in Djibouti is interpreted as pointing to a second operational axis, likely related to Yemen.
🔹 The objective there would be to preempt or contain the Houthis and prevent the opening of another front in the Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea, which could otherwise amplify pressure on global maritime routes.
🔹 Overall, this analysis suggests that U.S. movements are not necessarily about a large-scale invasion, but about preparing for more limited, targeted operations across two key fronts: Iran’s southern coastline and the Yemen/Red Sea region.
🔗 Hamidreza Azizi
📝 Matthew Petti -
Iranians think all the talk about Kharg Island is a diversion and the U.S. buildup may really be for a ground operation on the coast of Hormuz and/or Yemen.
@CIG_telegram
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Source
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🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
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📊 Markets & Macro
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🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
